The October 2025 Presidential Election in Cameroon was a highly contested event, officially concluding with the re-election of incumbent Paul Biya.1 However, a deep dive into the official voter participation data, particularly the significant regional disparities, reveals a complex and deeply fractured political landscape. The statistical evidence points not only to persistent regional grievances but also to a worrying trend of highly variable electoral engagement that calls into question the legitimacy and representativeness of the national mandate.
This Post-2025 Election Analysis examines the official turnout figures published by the Constitutional Council, comparing them with historical data and highlighting the stark contrast between the conflict-affected Anglophone regions and parts of the Francophone regions.
I. The National Context: Overall Turnout and Historical Trend
The official results from Elections Cameroon (ELECAM) and validated by the Constitutional Council paint a picture of moderate national participation, slightly improving upon the previous cycle.
| Election | Date | Registered Voters | Cast Votes | Official Turnout (%) |
| 2025 Presidency | Oct 12, 2025 | 8,082,692 | 4,668,446 | 57.76% |
| 2018 Presidency | Oct 7, 2018 | 6,667,754 | 3,590,681 | 53.85% |
| 2020 Parliament. | Feb 9, 2020 | 6,900,928 | 3,021,947 | 43.79% |
The 57.76% turnout in the 2025 election marks a 3.91 percentage point increase from the 2018 Presidential election. While this national figure suggests a healthy level of civic engagement, this average masks two distinct and statistically divergent electoral realities across the country’s ten regions.
The total number of registered voters saw a significant increase of over 1.4 million since 2018, primarily attributed to ELECAM’s sustained efforts to enroll younger voters and the growing population. However, the true story lies in how and where these 4.6 million votes were cast.
II. The Core Disparity: Anglophone vs. Francophone Regions
The most statistically jarring finding of the 2025 election remains the dramatic difference in participation between the two English-speaking regions (Northwest and Southwest) and the eight French-speaking regions.
| Region | Primary Language | Estimated 2025 Turnout (%) | Trend vs. 2018 |
| Northwest | Anglophone | < 15% | Stagnant/Slight Dip |
| Southwest | Anglophone | < 18% | Moderate Increase |
| Eight Francophone Regions | Francophone | > 60% | Significant Increase |
In the 2018 election, turnout in the Anglophone regions notoriously failed to exceed 16%. Preliminary estimates for the 2025 election, based on independent observation reports and local tally sheets, indicate that while the Southwest Region saw a minor improvement, overall turnout in the Anglophone crisis zones remains critically low.
This extreme disparity underscores a fundamental challenge to the election’s national mandate. With an estimated one million internally displaced persons (IDPs) and ongoing separatist conflict, the right to vote remains practically inaccessible for a large segment of the Anglophone electorate. The low turnout is a direct, quantifiable reflection of the political and security crisis gripping these regions, where separatist groups enforced lockdowns and threatened violence against voters.
Data Point: In one of the most concerning trends observed in this Post-2025 Election Analysis, a five-week separatist-imposed lockdown in the Northwest region, beginning shortly before election day, effectively sabotaged the electoral process, confirming the link between security threats and voter suppression.
III. The Francophone Turnout Puzzle: High Participation and High Variation
While the Anglophone regions battled with historically low numbers, the eight Francophone regions presented a different statistical puzzle: remarkably high, and sometimes uniform, participation rates in specific areas.
An examination of the divisional-level data in the Francophone areas reveals two distinct patterns:
A. Divisions with “Normal” Turnout (50% – 70%)
In major urban centers and politically diverse regions (such as the Littoral, West, and parts of the Centre), turnout generally fell within an expected range of 50% to 70%. This range is often seen in competitive multi-party elections and aligns with the national average.
B. Divisions with “Atypical” Turnout (80% – 97%)
In certain divisions—particularly in the Centre, East, and South Regions (often considered strongholds of the ruling party)—turnout figures soared well above 80%, sometimes reaching nearly 97% of registered voters.
| Turnout Category | Division Examples | Implication |
| Atypical High (> 80% ) | Upper Sanaga (Centre), Dja-et-Lobo (South) | Raises statistical red flags regarding the operational reality of elections, where 100% participation is a statistical near-impossibility. |
| Crisis Low (< 20% ) | Momo (Northwest), Lebialem (Southwest) | Quantifies the severe security crisis and its paralyzing effect on democratic life. |
The Statistical Anomaly: For a national election to be deemed credible, the participation rate must reflect the real-world variables of voter mortality, travel, illness, and general apathy. Analysts have noted that the divisions reporting 90% plus turnout were often the decisive margin for the incumbent’s narrow victory (53.66% nationally). Excluding the votes from divisions with participation rates exceeding, for example, 70% (as suggested by several independent analyses) would drastically alter the national vote distribution.
IV. Comparative Analysis: Turnout vs. Voter Base Growth
The Post-2025 Election Analysis also highlights a crucial disconnect between the growth in registered voters and the actual participation rate.
- Registered Voters: Increased by over 21% (from 6.67 million in 2018 to 8.08 million in 2025).
- Turnout Percentage: Increased by less than 4 percentage points.
This suggests that while ELECAM successfully expanded the electoral register—addressing one part of the democratic mandate—a significant proportion of the newly registered voters, alongside previously registered ones, chose not to cast their ballots. This underscores underlying issues of voter apathy, distrust in the electoral process, or profound disillusionment with the political options available.
Conclusion: A Mandate Defined by Disparity
The official 57.76% turnout in the 2025 Presidential Election is a deeply deceptive figure. It is an arithmetic average that fuses two mutually exclusive realities: a crippled electoral process in the Anglophone regions due to insecurity, and an unusually high, statistically questionable participation in specific Francophone strongholds.
The data from the 2025 vote solidifies the narrative that Cameroon’s political future is defined by its regional divisions. Until the security crisis is resolved and a genuine, uniformly high level of voter participation is achievable across all ten regions, the winner of any presidential election will continue to preside over a mandate that is statistically and politically uneven. The next step for political leaders and civil society must be to address the systemic barriers to participation, ensuring that future elections reflect the true will and full engagement of the entire Cameroonian electorate.