Introduction: The Imperative for Economic Transformation
Cameroon, often dubbed “Africa in Miniature,” stands at a critical juncture. Despite being the largest economy in the CEMAC region and possessing vast natural resources, the country has long been dependent on raw commodity exports—a reliance that has left its structural transformation stalled. The decline in oil production, projected to fall for the third consecutive year to 19.8 million barrels in 2025 (down from 21.3 million in 2024), underscores the urgent need for a diversified, resilient, and inclusive economic model.
In response, the government’s National Development Strategy (NDS 2020-2030) has centered its focus on structural transformation, industrialization, and, critically, an aggressive Import Substitution strategy. This article examines the viability of two key pillars supporting this goal: accelerating digital infrastructure and promoting agro-based Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs).
I. The Digital Leap: Positioning Cameroon as a Regional Hub
The digital economy is widely recognized as a catalyst for productivity and growth, and Cameroon’s recent investments indicate a serious push to leverage this sector, which currently contributes around 5% to the national GDP.
A. Data-Backed Infrastructure Expansion
The most strategic development is the country’s move to connect to high-capacity international submarine cables. The planned connection to the Medusa Africa Submarine Cable System is a vital upgrade. Unlike older, simpler cables (like the aging SAT-3), Medusa is designed to offer multidirectional connectivity to Europe, North Africa, and South Africa, providing increased international capacity and redundant routes.
- Impact on Connectivity: This leap in capacity is a critical enabler. While the number of internet users surged from 20,000 in 2000 to over 12 million in 2023, the cost of data remains high, often exceeding the Alliance for Affordable Internet’s recommendation of 1GB costing 2% or less of average monthly income.
- Digital Governance: To maximize this investment, the government has launched initiatives like the National Digital Payment Switch Infrastructure (NPSI) to drive down mobile transaction costs and platforms like e-taxation to digitalize public services. This is crucial for formalizing the large informal sector, which accounted for 87% of all jobs in 2023.
B. The Challenge of the Digital Divide
However, the digital ecosystem faces significant headwinds.
- Affordability and Penetration: Despite high mobile phone penetration (around 86% in 2023), nearly 58% of the population remains offline, according to 2025 estimates. Furthermore, the gender digital divide persists, with women lagging behind men in internet usage.
- Governance and Stability: Past government-initiated internet shutdowns, particularly in the Anglophone regions, have drawn international condemnation and inflicted significant economic damage, undermining confidence in the stability of the digital space. For the digital sector to truly drive transformation, consistent, affordable access and an open regulatory environment are non-negotiable.
II. Agro-SMEs and the Import Substitution Goal
Cameroon’s economic policy has recently prioritized reducing its dependence on food imports—a primary component of the Import Substitution strategy. The agricultural sector, which employs nearly 40% of the population, is central to this plan.
A. The Growth Engine of SMEs
Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs) are the backbone of the economy, accounting for over 99% of the national business stock. Recent data shows encouraging momentum:
- SME Growth: The total stock of SMEs reached approximately 443,524 in 2024, marking a growth rate of 12.8% over the previous year. The Enterprise Creation Procedure Centre (ECPC) alone registered 21,132 new SMEs in 2024, a 7.5% increase from 2023. These new enterprises are projected to generate over 97,000 jobs.
- Agricultural Market Trajectory: The broader agriculture market is forecast to grow at a 4.5% CAGR between 2025 and 2030, with the market size estimated at $10.2 billion in 2025. This growth is primarily driven by rising domestic demand and regional export opportunities opened by the AfCFTA. The focus on cereals, which is projected to expand at a 7.2% CAGR through 2030, directly addresses the core of the import challenge.
B. Harnessing the Agricultural Potential
Government-led initiatives like the Agropastoral and Fishing Import Substitution Plan (PIISAH) aim to boost domestic production. The primary sector’s growth is forecast at 3.5% in 2025, driven by higher input availability and the implementation of PIISAH.
- The focus is on crops like rice, where northern schemes already produce 2/3 of domestic output but still only cover less than 40% of local demand. Agro-SMEs are crucial for bridging this gap by engaging in post-harvest processing, value addition, and connecting farmers to markets via mobile platforms to reduce post-harvest losses.
III. Structural Challenges and the Path Forward
While the momentum in digital and agro-SME creation is clear, Cameroon’s overarching economic transformation remains burdened by deep-seated structural issues.
- Macroeconomic Trajectory: The non-oil sector, particularly services, is driving GDP growth, projected at 3.9% in 2025 (up from 3.5% in 2024). This stability is positive, but the government’s target of an 8% average growth rate set in the NDS 2020-2030 is currently far from being met.
- Business Environment: Cameroon is plagued by structural weaknesses, including endemic corruption, significant infrastructure deficits (energy, roads), and a poor business climate, all of which hinder both local SME growth and foreign direct investment.
- Financing and Formalization: A major bottleneck for SMEs is limited access to finance. The government’s efforts must be doubled to promote competition among financial actors and non-bank service providers, including mobile money, to improve micro-credit access for enterprises trying to move out of the massive informal sector.
Conclusion
The question of whether digital deals and agro-SME growth can rescue Cameroon’s stalled economic transformation hinges entirely on the country’s ability to address its chronic governance and infrastructure challenges.
The two sectors are mutually reinforcing: a robust digital backbone (e.g., Medusa Cable) provides the platform for agro-SMEs to access better market information, secure mobile payments, and streamline logistics, thereby effectively supporting the national Import Substitution strategy.
Current data suggests a foundation is being laid: SME creation is rising, and significant digital infrastructure is being deployed. However, without radical reforms to cut corruption, improve regulatory transparency, and stabilize conflict zones that threaten infrastructure, this dual-engine approach risks remaining stuck in the starting block. For Cameroon to achieve its NDS goals and transition from a commodity-dependent state to a diversified regional hub, the political will to enforce good governance must match the ambition of its economic plans.