Vision or Illusion?
In 2009, the Cameroonian government unveiled a roadmap that promised to change the face of the nation: Cameroon Vision 2035. The goal was as bold as it was clear: to transform Cameroon into an emerging economy, a land of shared prosperity, and a newly industrialized nation within 25 to 30 years.
Now, as we stand in 2026, the halfway mark has long passed, and the 2035 deadline is looming just a decade away. For the average Cameroonian and the curious investor, the question has shifted from “What is the plan?” to “Is this a reality or a sophisticated mirage?”
What Does “Emerging” Actually Mean?
To understand if Cameroon can make it, we first have to define the finish line. Under the Cameroon Vision 2035 framework, “emergence” isn’t just a buzzword; it’s backed by specific macroeconomic targets:
- Income Status: Transitioning from a low-income to an upper-middle-income country (requiring GNI per capita to rise significantly from current levels).
- Industrialization: Increasing the manufacturing sector’s share of GDP to 25%.
- Poverty Reduction: Bringing the poverty rate down to less than 10%.
- Governance: Consolidating democracy and national unity.
The Current Snapshot (2024–2026)
As of early 2026, the data shows a country that is moving, but perhaps not at the “sprint” pace required for a 2035 finish.
| Indicator | Vision 2035 Target | Current Status (est. 2024-2026) |
| GDP Growth Rate | 7% – 10% (sustained) | 3.9% – 4.4% |
| Manufacturing (% of GDP) | 25% | ~13.9% |
| Poverty Rate | < 10% | ~23% (extreme poverty) |
| GDP Per Capita | > $4,000 | ~$1,730 – $1,811 |
The Growth Gap: By the Numbers
The most sobering piece of data comes from recent industrial assessments. In 2010, experts estimated that Cameroon needed roughly 2.2% annual industrial growth to meet its goals. However, because the manufacturing share of GDP actually declined to 13.9% by 2024, the math has changed.
The 5.5% Rule: According to recent economic forecasts, Cameroon now needs a minimum of 5.5% annual industrial growth every single year until 2035 to stay on track. This is more than double the current trajectory.
Three Pillars of Hope: Why it Could Still Happen
Despite the daunting numbers, Cameroon possesses structural advantages that many “emerging” peers would envy.
1. The Energy Revolution
Emergence requires power. Cameroon is currently home to several “Great Ambition” projects:
- Nachtigal Hydroelectric Plant: Expected to add 420 MW to the national grid, significantly reducing the energy deficit that stifles local factories.
- Kribi Gas-to-Power: Leveraging domestic offshore gas to fuel the industrial zone near the deep-sea port.
2. Strategic Infrastructure
The Kribi Deep Sea Port is a game-changer. It positions Cameroon as the primary maritime gateway for landlocked neighbors like Chad and the Central African Republic. Additionally, the government has committed to delivering 650 kilometers of new paved roads in 2026 to fix the “last-mile” problem that makes transporting goods expensive.
3. Diversification Beyond Oil
While oil still accounts for a large portion of exports, the rise in cocoa processing and digital services shows a shift. The World Bank notes that Cameroon’s services sector now contributes over 50% to the GDP, indicating a move away from a purely primitive, extractives-based economy.
The “Drag” Factors: Why it Might Not
To turn the vision into reality, the “illusion” created by systemic bottlenecks must be dismantled.
The Business Readiness Gap
The World Bank’s Business Ready 2025 report placed Cameroon in the fifth quintile globally. While the laws for business are often adequate (scoring 58.75), the public services to implement them are lagging (scoring only 36.30). It remains easier to start a business on paper than to actually clear goods through a port or get a reliable high-speed internet connection in secondary cities.
The Conflict Tax
Development requires peace. The ongoing “Anglophone Crisis” in the North-West and South-West regions, along with security threats in the Far North, acts as a “conflict tax.” Resources that should be going into schools and clinics are diverted to defense, and key agricultural exports (like timber and cocoa from the West) face constant logistical disruptions.
The Wealth Accumulation Problem
A startling 2025 World Bank update revealed that while Cameroon’s total national wealth grew, its wealth per capita declined by 11% over the last 25 years. This suggests the population is growing faster than the country is accumulating assets—a recipe for stagnation, not emergence.
Verdict: Vision or Illusion?
Can Cameroon become an emerging market by 2035?
The answer is: Yes, but not on its current path.
The “Vision” remains a valid blueprint, but the execution needs a “software update.” Achieving emergence will require shifting from 4% growth to a consistent 7%+, which can only happen if the private sector—not just the state—becomes the engine of growth.
If the government can bridge the gap between “laws on paper” and “services on the ground,” and if the energy projects coming online can finally stop the blackouts, the 2035 goal could move from a political slogan to a lived reality.