The Economic Cost of Post-Election Instability in Cameroon

The conclusion of Cameroon’s October 2025 Presidential Election, marked by a disputed result and subsequent waves of violent protest, has thrust the national economy into a period of acute instability. Already burdened by the protracted Anglophone crisis, external commodity shocks, and pre-existing infrastructure deficits, the immediate post-election unrest delivered a sharp, quantifiable blow to commercial activity.

This article provides a data-intensive, preliminary quantification of The Economic Cost of Post-Election Instability, analyzing the immediate losses from business shutdowns, supply chain paralysis, inflationary pressures, and the palpable erosion of investor confidence in Central Africa’s largest economy.

I. Immediate Losses: The Cost of Commercial Paralysis in Urban Hubs

The most immediate and devastating impact of the post-election protests, which flared up notably after the results proclamation on October 27, 2025, was the near-total shutdown of business activity in major cities, particularly the economic capital, Douala.

A. Daily Revenue Losses in Douala

Economists and local traders’ associations have provided alarming early estimates of the financial damage caused by the unrest, which involved street battles, curfews, and the destruction of commercial property.

The loss of an estimated FCFA 10 billion per day represents a profound shock to the service and commerce sectors that drive a significant portion of the country’s non-oil GDP.

B. The GECAM Audit Initiative

In a critical move to quantify these losses, the Groupement des Entreprises du Cameroun (GECAM), the country’s leading employers’ association, announced the launch of a comprehensive study in early November 2025 to assess the damage incurred by its members and the broader business ecosystem.

• Goal: To establish a factual, reliable database on losses to support advocacy efforts and solicit targeted assistance from government and partner institutions (e.g., liquidity measures, fiscal support, insurance coverage).
• Key Findings (Preliminary Statement): The unrest led to disruptions in trade flows, slowed supply chains between production zones and urban centers, and severely eroded investor confidence.

This collective action by the private sector confirms that the financial shock extends far beyond superficial protest damage, reaching deep into the operational continuity of businesses.

II. Supply Chain Paralysis: The Douala Port Bottleneck

Cameroon’s strategic importance rests heavily on the Port of Douala-Bonabéri, which handles approximately 75% to 85% of the national freight and is a vital transit corridor for landlocked Chad and the Central African Republic. Post-election instability created a significant logjam at this economic choke-point.

A. Disruption and Delays

While pre-election port performance was already hindered by chronic congestion (vessel waiting times up to nine days in Q1 2025), the post-election curfews and security deployments amplified the operational risk.

• Logistical Fallout: Curfews and travel restrictions in Douala likely slowed or temporarily halted port operations, leading to increased vessel congestion and longer waiting times.
• Regional Impact: Given the port’s role as a major regional hub, this disruption immediately affects import and export flows for neighboring countries, creating a regional economic ripple effect.

The disruption to the movement of finished goods, fuel, and agricultural exports threatens to undermine Cameroon’s crucial non-oil sector growth, which the IMF and World Bank had forecast to be a key driver for 2025.

III. Inflationary Pressures and the Cost of Living

One of the most immediate financial burdens passed onto the average Cameroonian household following instability is a spike in the cost of basic goods, driven by supply chain disruption and hoarding.

A. Pre-Crisis Inflation Context

Before the election, Cameroon was in a difficult but improving macroeconomic position, with inflation rates trending downward due to monetary policy and lower imported costs:

• Mid-2025 (June): Inflation rate stood at 3.3% (Source: INS Cameroon).
• End-2024: Projected average inflation was 4.5%.
• Pre-2025 IMF Projection: Average inflation for 2025 was projected at 3.7%, based on stability assumptions.

B. The Post-Election Inflation Shock

The physical and security-related disruptions following October 27 immediately negated the recent downward trend in consumer prices.

• Mechanism: Road closures, the fear of looting, and the general halt in market activity led to artificial scarcity. Traders increased prices for perishable goods and imported staples to cover their enhanced security risks and lost time.
• Government Response: The Minister of Trade was forced to issue warnings against price hikes, confirming the reality of rampant opportunistic inflation in the immediate aftermath of the tensions.

This rise in the cost of living directly impacts the most vulnerable populations, reversing marginal gains in poverty reduction and further squeezing household budgets already strained by the Economic Cost of Post-Election Instability and recent fuel subsidy cuts.

IV. Erosion of Investor Confidence and Medium-Term Risk

Beyond the immediate financial damage, The Economic Cost of Post-Election Instability includes less tangible, yet equally critical, medium-term risks to foreign direct investment (FDI) and long-term economic planning.

A. Downgrading the Investment Outlook

International financial institutions (IFIs) had already flagged “potential tensions surrounding the presidential elections in October 2025” as a major downside risk to Cameroon’s economic outlook.

• 2025 Real GDP Projection: Prior to the crisis, Real GDP growth for 2025 was projected at a moderate 3.5% (IMF) to 4.0% (World Bank).
• Risk Realization: The actualization of post-election violence—as opposed to a peaceful outcome—means that these GDP growth forecasts are now subject to downward revision, as the negative shock to business activity and capital expenditure takes hold.

Investor decision-making relies heavily on predictability and stability. The sight of widespread civil unrest, property destruction, and political detentions immediately raises the political risk premium for operating in Cameroon. This makes the country less competitive against other emerging markets and deters crucial investment in sectors like energy and infrastructure.

B. Foreign Policy and Diplomatic Pressure

The violent suppression of post-election protests also triggered public concern from key international partners, including France, which called for restraint and respect for the rule of law. Such diplomatic concerns, especially from major trade partners, can foreshadow potential delays or freezes in vital bilateral aid, project financing, or trade agreements, adding an invisible layer to the true economic cost of instability.²¹

V. Conclusion: A Call for Factual Recovery

While the definitive, consolidated figure from the GECAM audit is yet to be released, preliminary estimates of FCFA 10 billion per day in the economic capital alone confirm that The Economic Cost of Post-Election Instability is a significant economic event, not just a political footnote.

The primary task for the government and the private sector is now three-fold:

1. Immediate Restoration of supply chains and security on transit corridors.
2. Transparency regarding the GECAM audit findings to guide targeted assistance.
3. Restoration of Confidence through clear signals of stability and an improved investment climate to prevent long-term capital flight.

Failure to decisively mitigate these economic repercussions threatens to undo the modest pre-election gains in fiscal consolidation and could deepen the poverty rate, turning a political dispute into a profound economic crisis.